Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, committed news yesterday when she called for Andy Burnham to be allowed to run for parliament. In January Burnham was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election by Labour’s National Executive Committee. NEC officers said that Burnham going to Westminster would create the unnecessary expense of a Greater Manchester mayoralty by-election (they were also, of course, keen to stop a potential leadership challenger from getting to parliament).

In an interview with The House magazine, Nandy has said she disagreed with the NEC decision in January and would have voted to allow Burnham to stand had she been on the subgroup which decided his fate. “I think he’s a huge asset to the party. And I’ve said before, I’ll say again, I’ll support him in whatever he wants to do,” she said.

The common view is that Starmer, who led the charge against Burnham on the NEC back in January, would not be politically powerful enough to block him a second time if a seat fell vacant. Since the block, he has lost his chief of staff and been scarred by further revelations about the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Labour came third in Gorton and Denton. Cabinet ministers now speak freely about the block being a mistake.

But if that is the case it has not yet sunk in for the NEC. I spoke to NEC members last night about Nandy’s comments and the position on Burnham was the same: they don’t want a Manchester mayoral election. “The circumstances haven’t changed,” I’m told. One NEC member said that Burnham’s best option if he wants a seat would be to simply resign the mayoralty outright in anticipation of a by-election – he would not have to seek NEC permission to do this – and then put himself forward as a Labour candidate. But he would still have to account for such a move before an NEC selection panel, and they would not look favourably on it.

It would however remove the most powerful argument for blocking Burnham, since a mayoral election will have already been triggered. Instead, NEC members would have to come up with other reasons for blocking a former Cabinet minister who was good enough to be a three-times winner for Labour in Greater Manchester. Then we could get into a shakier argument about the gender balance of the PLP – already trailed by Burnham’s opponents last year – which will be widely attacked as an excuse rather than a reason.

The stalemate continues. But should the “circumstances” change, and they may do very quickly after the May elections, Burnham could pull off a second dash for a seat.

This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here

[Further reading: The everything shock]

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