{"id":174,"date":"2026-02-03T06:08:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T06:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/political-strategy-notes\/"},"modified":"2026-02-03T06:08:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T06:08:00","slug":"political-strategy-notes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/political-strategy-notes\/","title":{"rendered":"Political Strategy Notes"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<br><p>From &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/30\/politics\/ice-polling-americans-views-immigration\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">A closer look at Americans\u2019 views on ICE<\/a>&#8221; by Aaron Blake at CNN Politics: &#8220;The White House and Congress have begun what appear to be earnest negotiations over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/29\/politics\/senate-funding-bill-vote-government-shutdown-ice\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement<\/a> in the aftermath of Alex Pretti\u2019s killing in Minneapolis&#8230;And a couple new surveys conducted both before and after Pretti\u2019s death add some interesting data points to the debate&#8230;It\u2019s well-established by now that Americans have largely turned against ICE, with about 6 in 10 disapproving of it and saying it\u2019s gone \u201ctoo far\u201d or been \u201ctoo tough.\u201d&#8230;But a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/fox-news-poll-59-voters-say-ice-too-aggressive-up-10-points-since-july\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fox News poll<\/a> and a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/2026\/01\/29\/how-americans-see-immigration-officers-behaviors-and-civilian-actions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pew Research Center poll<\/a> dig a little deeper on a few key points&#8230;1. Independents don\u2019t agree with Trump on local police helping ICE..For one, the Fox poll released this week suggests an argument made by Trump and others \u2013 that local officials are to blame for the chaos because of their lack of cooperation with ICE \u2013 is unlikely to fly with Americans&#8230;Trump warned Wednesday that Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey was \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/us\/live-news\/minneapolis-ice-trump-01-28-26?post-id=cmkykk8cm00003b6p3hiiupwt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">playing with fire<\/a>\u201d by not using local police to enforce federal immigration laws&#8230;White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has said that Frey and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have \u201cshamefully blocked local and state police from cooperating with ICE, actively inhibiting efforts to arrest violent criminals.\u201d&#8230;Vice President JD Vance added last week: \u201cIf we have a little cooperation from local and state officials, I think the chaos would go way down in this community.\u201d But Americans aren\u2019t sure this is what\u2019s called for&#8230;The Fox poll asked registered voters whether they favored or opposed \u201crequiring local governments to cooperate with ICE.\u201d&#8230;Voters were about evenly split, with 49% in favor and 50% opposed. But independents opposed this idea by a wide margin, 64%-34%&#8230;(And that\u2019s to say nothing of the fact that Minneapolis police are actually <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/local\/twin-cities\/2026\/01\/29\/minneapolis-police-helping-ice-trump-frey-staffing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">legally barred from doing what Trump wants<\/a>.)&#8230;&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/30\/politics\/ice-polling-americans-views-immigration\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Blake continues<\/a>, &#8220;2. Americans seem to misunderstand the scope of ICE\u2019s actions&#8230;There <em>is<\/em> one aspect of Trump\u2019s messaging that does appear to be breaking through, though&#8230;The Fox poll shows a majority of registered voters think that ICE\u2019s actions reflect Trump\u2019s promises to target people with criminal records either \u201calmost always\u201d (29%) or \u201cmost of the time\u201d (25%)&#8230;That suggests that most Americans think this is indeed mostly about criminals&#8230;But it\u2019s not \u2013 or at least, not anymore&#8230;The most recent data from the <a href=\"https:\/\/deportationdata.org\/analysis\/immigration-enforcement-first-nine-months-trump.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Deportation Data Project<\/a> at the University of California Berkeley shows that the vast majority of non-citizens arrested by ICE had no criminal convictions, as of data through mid-October. (The percentage of non-criminals targeted has generally increased over Trump\u2019s second term.)&#8230;Many others had pending charges.\u00a0But a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2025\/12\/04\/us\/ice-arrests-criminal-records-data.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New York Times analysis<\/a> last month found that major enforcement operations focused on specific areas tended to key on people who hadn\u2019t even faced charges. In Washington, DC, 84% had never been charged with a crime. That percentage was 57% in Los Angeles; 63% in Massachusetts; and 66% in Illinois&#8230;We don\u2019t have data on Minneapolis yet, but it stands to reason that the numbers look somewhat similar there&#8230;The difference between Americans\u2019 perception of the immigration crackdown and what the statistics bear out suggests their already- negative opinions of ICE could worsen further&#8230;After all, Americans\u2019 support for deportations <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/race-and-ethnicity\/2025\/03\/26\/americans-views-of-deportations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">drops significantly<\/a> when the person in question hasn\u2019t committed a crime.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/More here.\">Blake adds<\/a>, &#8220;3. Americans are good with recording ICE; they don\u2019t like ICE wearing masks&#8230;Pew, meanwhile, tested how people feel about some of the things they\u2019re seeing from both federal agents and the protesters in Minneapolis&#8230;Americans, by and large, seem to be okay with many of the protesters\u2019 tactics. About three-quarters (74%) said it\u2019s acceptable to record video of agents making arrests. And 59% said it\u2019s even okay to share information on where arrests are happening, which protesters often signal through whistles&#8230;As for ICE\u2019s tactics, Americans don\u2019t like them as much&#8230;Nearly three-quarters (72%) said it\u2019s unacceptable to use a person\u2019s looks or the language they speak as a reason to check their immigration status. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/27\/us\/video\/ebof-rideshare-driver-ice-confrontation-bovino\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Some videos<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/17\/us\/video\/border-patrol-detain-citizen-accent-vrtc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">from Minneapolis<\/a> show agents mentioning the accent of the person they\u2019re stopping.) And Americans say 61%-38% that it\u2019s unacceptable for immigration agents to wear face covering to hide their identities on the job&#8230;The latter issue is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/28\/politics\/democrats-ice-demands-government-shutdown-risk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">one area where Democrats are demanding reform i<\/a>n the current negotiations. Trump and administration officials have said it\u2019s necessary to avoid the agents being doxxed&#8230;Expect that to be one of the major flashpoints in this debate.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/30\/politics\/ice-polling-americans-views-immigration\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">More here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Alex Nguy\u1ec5n reports that &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.motherjones.com\/politics\/2026\/02\/texas-democrat-taylor-rehmet-flips-state-senate-district-that-trump-won-by-17-points\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas Democrat Flips State Senate District That Trump Won by 17 Points<\/a>&#8221; at Mother Jones: &#8220;<span class=\"section-lead\">A Democrat and union leader<\/span> won a special election on Saturday to represent a Texas state Senate district that Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024&#8230;\u00a0GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick called the result, a 57-43 victory for Taylor Rehmet, \u201ca wake-up call for Republicans across Texas\u201d in an early Sunday <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/DanPatrick\/status\/2017858075932217719\">post<\/a> on X. Republicans <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sos.state.tx.us\/elections\/voter\/elected.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">currently hold<\/a> every statewide elected office in Texas&#8230;\u201cOur voters cannot take anything for granted,\u201d Patrick continued, calling out low voter turnout in special elections&#8230;Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and the leader of his local machinist\u2019s union, spent $242,174\u2014nearly 10 times less than Wambsganss\u2014according to campaign finance reports reviewed by <a href=\"https:\/\/fortworthreport.org\/2026\/01\/31\/texas-senate-runoff-election-saturday-draws-nations-attention-to-tarrant-county\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Fort Worth Report<\/em><\/a>&#8230;\u201cIt\u2019s clear as day that this disastrous Republican agenda is hurting working families in Texas and across the country, which is why voters in red, blue, and purple districts are putting their faith in candidates like Taylor Rehmet,\u201d Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, said in a <a href=\"https:\/\/democrats.org\/news\/texas-democrat-taylor-rehmet-pulls-off-shocking-upset-victory-flips-trump-17-seat\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">statement<\/a>. \u201cThis overperformance is a warning sign to Republicans across the country.\u201d&#8230;According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.texastribune.org\/2026\/01\/30\/texas-senate-district-9-runoff-rehmet-wambsganss-special-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>the Texas Tribune<\/em><\/a>, Patrick gave $300,000 to the campaign of Rehmet\u2019s opponent, Leigh Wambsganss, through his PAC, Texas Senate Leadership Fund. Trump also posted multiple <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/115991359481785479\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">get-out-the-vote<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/115982747344520072\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">messages<\/a> on behalf of Wambsganss on Truth Social in the days leading up to the election&#8230;\u00a0Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and the leader of his local machinist\u2019s union, spent $242,174\u2014nearly 10 times less than Wambsganss\u2014according to campaign finance reports reviewed by <a href=\"https:\/\/fortworthreport.org\/2026\/01\/31\/texas-senate-runoff-election-saturday-draws-nations-attention-to-tarrant-county\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Fort Worth Report<\/em><\/a>&#8230;\u00a0\u201cIt\u2019s clear as day that this disastrous Republican agenda is hurting working families in Texas and across the country, which is why voters in red, blue, and purple districts are putting their faith in candidates like Taylor Rehmet,\u201d Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, said in a <a href=\"https:\/\/democrats.org\/news\/texas-democrat-taylor-rehmet-pulls-off-shocking-upset-victory-flips-trump-17-seat\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">statement<\/a>. \u201cThis overperformance is a warning sign to Republicans across the country.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.motherjones.com\/politics\/2026\/02\/texas-democrat-taylor-rehmet-flips-state-senate-district-that-trump-won-by-17-points\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">More here<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n<br>\r\n<br><a href=\"https:\/\/thedemocraticstrategist.org\/2026\/02\/political-strategy-notes-938\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"From &#8220;A closer look at Americans\u2019 views on ICE&#8221; by Aaron Blake at CNN Politics: &#8220;The White House and Congress have begun what appear to be earnest negotiations over reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the aftermath of Alex Pretti\u2019s killing in Minneapolis&#8230;And a couple new surveys conducted both before and after Pretti\u2019s death add some interesting data points&hellip;","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":78,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_analytify_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=174"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wokeantifa.org\/topics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}