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\n\u201c[W]e do not know the true amount of drugs coming into the country because we don’t know the amount that comes in undetected (the known unknown),\u201d Katharine Harris<\/a>, a fellow in drug policy at Rice University\u2019s Baker Institute for Public Policy, told us in an email.<\/p>\n\n\n\n She said the amount of drugs \u201cseized\u201d — which is what the federal government reports — is not equivalent to total drug \u201cflow.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, Trump, based only on cherry-picked seizure data, continues to claim that his administration has almost completely stopped drugs from being brought into the U.S. by way of water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “We cut the flow of fentanyl across our border by 59%, which is unheard of,” Trump said in May 22 remarks<\/a> in New York. “And we cut the flow of fentanyl and drugs into our country by the ocean and the sea, in other words, coming in by water, by ocean and sea by 97%.”<\/p>\n\n\n Then, on May 28, in an interview<\/a> with his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, on Fox News, he said, “We have drugs down 97%. Fentanyl and various drugs down 97% on drugs coming in by water.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n The president has made the 97% reduction claim more than a dozen times<\/a> since late December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We already addressed<\/a> in February Trump\u2019s unsupported claim that fentanyl coming across U.S. borders is down by more than half. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The amount of fentanyl seized by Customs and Border Protection decreased by about 50% in the first full 15 months of Trump\u2019s second term, going from 26,398 pounds seized in President Joe Biden\u2019s last full 15 months in office to 13,216 pounds seized in Trump\u2019s first full 15 months, according to<\/a> the most recent CBP data. Also, based on provisional data, the National Center for Health Statistics estimates<\/a> about a 22% decline in overdose deaths from synthetic opioids, or fentanyl, between 2024 and 2025 — from 48,913 to 38,084.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The seizure data is often used as a proxy for how much enters the country undetected. To some, fewer pounds seized indicates that fewer drugs are being smuggled in — not more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fact that the seized amount has declined could mean that less of the drug is being trafficked into the U.S., but it could also mean that authorities are catching less of it. In October 2024, we wrote<\/a> about then-Vice President Kamala Harris\u2019 claim that the Biden administration had cut the flow of illegal fentanyl \u201cby half\u201d because the amount seized by border officials had increased<\/em> in Biden\u2019s first two years as president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But experts said there was also insufficient data to support her statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIf you don\u2019t know the denominator\u201d \u2013 meaning the figure for the total flow of a drug to the U.S. \u2013 \u201cyou can\u2019t have an answer,\u201d David Luckey<\/a>, director of the RAND Rural America Partnership Initiative and professor of policy analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy, told us<\/a> for that 2024 story. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump\u2019s claim about drugs coming by water is flawed for similar reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When we asked for the source of his claim, a senior administration official sent only a hyperlink to the webpage with statistics<\/a> on drugs seized by CBP\u2019s Air and Marine Operations, which does aviation and maritime law enforcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sometimes — such as in June 10 remarks<\/a> in the Oval Office — Trump sounds as though he’s claiming that there has been a 97% cut in fentanyl coming by water. But that’s not really what he means.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Administration officials have told other<\/a> fact-checkers<\/a> that the president\u2019s claim is based on the decrease in the amount of all drugs seized in July 2025 compared with November 2025. <\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.factcheck.org\/UploadedFiles\/cbp_amo_water_patrol_insert_getty-533x355.jpg\")