The issue that Democrats last year thought might boost them this year has not gone away. One key Senate candidate understands, as I noted<\/a> at New York<\/em>:<\/p>\n Enhanced\u00a0Obamacare premium subsidies<\/a>\u00a0benefiting over 20 million Americans expired at the end of last year. It was such a big deal that the need to address it became the principal Democratic rationale for triggering the\u00a0longest government shutdown in U.S. history<\/a>\u00a0last October. It remained a big deal as 2026 arrived: The House actually passed a \u201cclean\u201d three-year extension of the subsidies on January 8, with 17 Republicans joining Democrats on the vote. There were bipartisan negotiations in the Senate to cut a deal that would include some sort of subsidy extension.<\/p>\n Republicans were all over the place on health-care costs more generally. Some tried to change the subject to non-insurance health-care cost issues like pharmaceuticals. Others spoke of some huge conservative health-care overhaul that would be enacted on a party-line vote using budget reconciliation (a sort of One Big Beautiful Bill Act 2.0). On January 15, Donald Trump himself suddenly announced he was unveiling a \u201cGreat Healthcare Plan\u201d<\/a> that turned out to be a hodgepodge of old Republican gimmicks fleshed out with vague promises, with no real plans for legislation.<\/p>\n And then \u2026 everyone got distracted, mostly because federal immigration agents conducted a mass-deportation \u201csurge\u201d in Minneapolis that resulted in\u00a0two deaths<\/a>, a terrorized city, worldwide outrage, and a\u00a0partial government shutdown<\/a>. Even as the two parties in Congress fought over the immigration-enforcement guidelines Democrats were demanding, prospects for any sort of bipartisan action on health care sickened and died, as\u00a0The<\/em>\u00a0Wall Street Journal<\/em>\u00a0reported<\/a> earlier this week:<\/p>\n “Top Senate negotiators said an effort to renew expired healthcare subsidies had effectively collapsed, likely ending the hopes of 20 million Americans that the tax-credit expansion could be revived and lower their monthly insurance premiums<\/a>.<\/p>\n “Talks had centered on a proposal<\/a>\u00a0from Sens.\u00a0Bernie Moreno\u00a0(R., Ohio) and\u00a0Susan Collins\u00a0(R., Maine) to extend a version of the enlarged Affordable Care Act subsidies for at least two years, while cutting off higher-income people from participating and eventually giving enrollees the option of putting money into health savings accounts. It also would eliminate zero-dollar premium plans. But lawmakers from both parties now say the chances of a deal have all but evaporated.<\/p>\n \u201c’It\u2019s effectively over,’ Moreno said Wednesday. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.)\u2014the architect of an adjacent plan\u2014agreed.”<\/p>\n Some conservative Republicans are still talking about a\u00a0second budget reconciliation bill<\/a>\u00a0to repeal and replace Obamacare (the task that\u00a0famously eluded them<\/a>\u00a0during Trump\u2019s first term), but this seems extremely unlikely given the fragile nature of GOP control of the House, obvious intraparty divisions over the substance of health-care policy, and the universal preoccupation with the midterms.<\/p>\n Speaking of the midterms, every day that goes by without action on the aftermath of the Obamacare subsidy lapse, it becomes an even more potent campaign issue for Democrats. One Democratic senator whose reelection in November is critical to his party\u2019s hopes of flipping the Senate,\u00a0Jon Ossoff<\/a>, has made it his principal campaign issue. It\u2019s pretty clear why he\u2019s focused on the issue. Georgia, like other red states that rejected the Affordable Care Act\u2019s optional Medicaid expansion, is a place where reliance on private health-insurance markets that go under the name of Obamacare is especially important. About\u00a01.5 million Georgians<\/a>, or 13 percent of the state\u2019s population, obtained health insurance via Obamacare in 2025. Facing premium hikes, that number has\u00a0dropped by 200,000<\/a>\u00a0in 2026 so far. And those sticking with their policies are paying premium increases averaging\u00a075 percent<\/a>\u00a0over last year\u2019s costs. Ossoff\u00a0talks about<\/a> this problem constantly:<\/p>\n “‘If we don\u2019t extend these tax credits, it\u2019s projected that half-a-million Georgians will lose their health insurance altogether,’ Ossoff said [in early January]. ‘More than a million Georgians will see their health insurance premiums double, in some cases triple.’<\/p>\n \u201c’I challenge all of my opponents today \u2026 to make clear where they stand,’ Ossoff said. ‘This is not a time for vague promises and political talking points. Do my opponents support throwing half-a-million Georgians off their health insruance? \u2026 I think it\u2019s a very straightforward policy and moral question.’\u201d<\/p>\n Ossoff is taking advantage of the fact that\u00a0three major Republicans<\/a>\u00a0who are competing in a tight race to oppose him in November \u2014 congressmen Buddy Carter and Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley \u2014 want to discuss almost anything else. Carter and Collins\u00a0voted against<\/a>\u00a0the subsidy extension, and Dooley has no known position. As they compete for a potentially decisive Trump endorsement for their May primary (with a June runoff quite likely), they are not about to go out on any limbs on health care, particularly if it involves continuing what Trump\u00a0calls\u00a0<\/a>the Unaffordable Care Act.<\/p>\n While the issue is particularly acute in Georgia, it will be a point of contention in campaigns everywhere, particularly if Trump and the GOP continue to ignore it or make vague promises to do something about health-care costs some other day in some other ways. Health-care policy has been a political albatross for Republicans for many years, and this looks like one year it could weigh on them heavily.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n
\n